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Charles Jaco has written opinion and commentary pieces for dozens of magazines and newspapers. Each week, read and comment on a fresh on-line version. The discussion page enables you to share your view points world wide. If you would like to make a comment go to the " Join the discussion" link below. If you would like to view past editorials visit the Editorial Archive.
Editorial: 3/8/2000 Now that the expected's become the inevitable, let's do the math. It'll be Bush
and Gore in November. Both have problems. Bush's are bigger. My money's on Gore
winning, with the GOP maintaining control of Congress, but barely. By the numbers--
The Voter News Service's exit polls in six of Fat Tuesday's 16 primaries show
that the majority of Bush's primary support comes from conservatives. No surprise
there. But among those who describe themselves as "moderate," McCain ate his lunch.
Contrast that to Gore's numbers. In every state but one, self-described "liberals"
went for Bradley, while Gore cleaned up with middle-of-the-roaders. Moderates are the
enemies of extremists like Al Sharpton and Rush Limbaugh. They also make up a majority
of the electorate. Gore has more appeal for moderate Democrats than Bush does for
moderate Republicans. Advantage Gore.
The same polls show that anywhere from ten to 34 per-cent of Bush voters describe
themselves as "...part of the religious right." For Gore, anywhere from 28 to 45
per-cent of his votes came from union households. Big labor is not popular among
average voters. Neither are the extreme religious conservatives. This one's a
toss-up.
John McCain has won a half-dozen primaries. Bill Bradley hasn't won a thing since
the beginning. Bradley supporters like the guy well enough, but most say they'd be
willing to vote for Gore. A McCain supporter, though, is a different breed of cat.
The vast majority--including cross-over Dems and indys--say they would have voted for
McCain in November. But a little over half say no way they're voting for Bush. The
pollsters at Zogby even plan to keep polling McCain supporters until November, the
idea being that the McCain Coalition is the flavor of the year in politics. Bottom
line? Gore will get the votes of his main opponent's supporters. Bush will not
get nearly as many McCain voters. Advantage Gore.
Two fellows named Bush are the fairly popular governors of the third and
fourth most populous states. Florida and Texas shouldn't even be close. Advantage
Bush.
Exit polls show that if the voting pattern of the primary "beauty contests"
in California resemble patterns this November, Gore should carry the Golden State the
same way Clinton did in 1992 and 1996. Advantage Gore.
New York will hinge on the turnout for the Senate race, and whether the Hillary-
haters and Rudy-bashers will split their tickets or go for a straight party line
vote. Another toss-up.
All that means the battleground will be the shrinking but still potent swath
of industrial states--Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois. These are places
where religious conservatives are the weakest and organized labor's the strongest.
Advantage Gore.
We can pretty well expect that the pattern of GOP voting since the first Reagan
run in 1980 will hold true. Meaning that the broadly-defined West and the old
Confederacy (minus Gore's Tennessee) goes for the Republicans. Advantage Bush.
Last week's ABC News-Washington Post nationwide poll, with a three per-cent
margin of error, shows Bush leading Gore 50 per-cent to 44 per-cent. Advantage
Bush.
But that's less than half of the 13 point lead Bush held over Gore in the very
same poll last year. That's not an advantage for Gore yet, but it is a big problem
for Bush.
Meantime, the new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, also with a three per-cent
margin of error, shows Bush and Gore tied with 46 per-cent each. The same poll showed
McCain beating Gore 46 to 41. But the biggest problem for Bush is that this is the
first WSJ-NBC poll showing him without a lead over Gore. A toss-up, but another
problem for Bush.
The ABC-Post poll also shows voters evenly split on two statements: "I'm
just plain tired of Bill Clinton," and "Al Gore is too close to Bill Clinton to
provide the fresh start the country needs." Advantage Bush.
The trick to that question, though, is whether the country needs a
"fresh start". If by that voters mean a renewed moral sense, then yes. But others
will counter that the economy has never been this good and that we're at peace.
The staus quo cuts both ways, both for Bush and for Gore.
If the economy percolates right along, it's a huge plus for Gore. President Bush
was unfairly blamed for the 1992 recession, and President Clinton's getting undue
credit for the 2000 prosperity. It's and old saw of politics that Presidents, and
candidates for President, get more blame and more credit than they deserve. If the
economy tanks due to inflation triggered by high oil prices or panic in the Dow Jones,
then Gore will--unfairly--be blamed and Bush--unfairly--will get the benefit.
An overseas crisis could be the wild card. China doesn't have the military
capability to invade Taiwan, despite their blather. But what if they manage to
escalate tensions. Will voters blame Clinton and his buddy-upt-oChina policy? Or
will they decide a crisis is no time to change parties in the White House?
Hold your thumb and forefinger an inch apart. India and Pakistan may be
that far from launching nukes at each other over the disputed Indian province of
Khasmir. If they become the first two countries ever to fire nuclear weapons at
each other, does Gore get the blame? Does Bush get extra votes? Or do voters
decide to chill and not change things?
Personally, I think the debates--for those who care--will make all the difference.
Gore demolished his opposition in the '96 Veep debates. And despite the excellent
brain trust of President Bush's that's working mightily for his eldest son, I'm
betting on the same poutcome this time around.
As to Congress--no chance the Democrats will take the Senate. And with the
unexpected retirement of some key Democrats and the defection of another from House
seats, I'm thinking the GOP will hold onto the House, but by an eyelash.
After reading all this, though, keep in mind the four rarest words in politics--
I could be wrong.
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